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SCO 2024: Islamabad Summit Amid Rising Tensions

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) plays a significant role in fostering cooperation between some of the most influential countries in Asia and beyond. With the upcoming 23rd Heads of Government (HOG) meeting scheduled for October 2024 in Islamabad, the world awaits the outcomes of this crucial summit.

With key global issues such as security, regional stability, and economic collaboration on the agenda, the summit is expected to shape the future dynamics of the region. This article delves into the origins, significance, and challenges that the SCO faces ahead of the Islamabad summit.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Origins and Growth

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is one of the most influential international organizations primarily focused on security and regional cooperation. Its origins can be traced back to 1996 when the “Shanghai Five” was established, comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, concerns arose regarding extremist religious groups and ethnic tensions in the region. To manage these issues, the Shanghai Five was created to foster cooperation on security matters. In 2001, Uzbekistan joined the grouping, leading to the formal establishment of the SCO.

Since its inception, the SCO has expanded its membership to include nine countries: India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, with Belarus being the latest addition. The organisation’s significance has grown over time, with its member states representing a significant portion of the world’s population and geographic territory.

The SCO has positioned itself as a counterweight to Western-dominated international organizations, particularly due to the active involvement of China and Russia, two major global powers. However, competition between China and Russia over influence in the SCO also plays a significant role in shaping the organization’s direction.

Why the SCO Summit is Significant

As the SCO heads into its 2024 summit, several critical issues underscore its importance in global geopolitics. The inclusion of countries like India, Iran, and Pakistan highlights the balancing of regional interests. The summit in Islamabad comes at a time when tensions between India and Pakistan are at a particularly low point due to ongoing disputes, making the participation of leaders from these countries an area of speculation.

The SCO’s importance is magnified by the growing tensions between the United States and Russia, particularly after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. The SCO has served as a platform for these countries to rally together against U.S. and Western influence in global affairs.

For instance, Iran’s inclusion in 2023 was viewed as a strategic move by both Russia and China to strengthen the organization and counter the U.S. diplomatic pressure on Iran. Despite the SCO’s strategic relevance, there remains skepticism about the tangible outcomes of the summit due to the organization’s non-committal language and an array of unresolved rivalries among its members.

The 2024 summit will focus on several key agendas, including security cooperation, counter-terrorism efforts, and strengthening economic ties. However, underlying tensions within the SCO remain. For example, despite Russia’s support for India’s inclusion in 2017, China has maintained its close ties with Pakistan, further complicating regional dynamics. Moreover, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has created both opportunities and tensions within the SCO, particularly as China’s economic influence in Central Asia grows.

India’s Role and Challenges at the SCO Summit

India’s participation in the SCO has been complex, given its geopolitical considerations with both China and Pakistan, two of the organisation’s leading members. Since becoming a full member in 2017, India has actively engaged with the SCO’s platforms, viewing it as an opportunity to interact with Central Asian nations and counterbalance the influence of both China and Pakistan in the region. Historically, India has used the SCO as a forum to engage with China on key issues, including the 2017 Doklam standoff and the 2020 Galwan Valley clash.

As the 2024 summit approaches, speculation surrounds Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s participation. Pakistan has invited Modi to the meeting in Islamabad, but given the strained ties between New Delhi and Islamabad, it remains uncertain whether Modi will attend. Relations between the two countries have deteriorated since 2019, following the Pulwama attack, the subsequent Balakot airstrike, and the abrogation of Article 370, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir.

Given these tensions, it is more likely that External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar will represent India at the summit, in line with past practices. India has consistently been represented at the HOG meetings by either the External Affairs or Defence Minister, while the Prime Minister has reserved his participation for the SCO Heads of State (HOS) summits. India’s diplomatic stance is clear: dialogue with Pakistan cannot proceed unless there is a cessation of terrorism directed toward India from Pakistan.

India has been cautious about its approach to the SCO. At the 2023 SCO HOS summit, hosted virtually by India, PM Modi refrained from hosting Pakistan’s leadership in person, underscoring India’s reluctance to engage in bilateral talks under the current conditions. Similarly, India opted to host the summit virtually rather than in a hybrid format, possibly to avoid a media spectacle surrounding the attendance of China and Pakistan’s leadership.

What Lies Ahead for the SCO?

The 2024 SCO summit will be a critical test for the organisation’s cohesion and effectiveness. While the SCO has successfully brought together nations with diverging interests, its ability to deliver concrete outcomes has been questioned. The geopolitical rivalry between China and Russia, coupled with China’s growing economic clout in Central Asia, poses challenges for the SCO’s long-term sustainability.

Moreover, the inclusion of countries like India and Pakistan, which have long-standing bilateral conflicts, adds to the complexity of the SCO’s functioning. While the organisation has served as a forum for dialogue, there is little evidence that it has managed to resolve these deep-rooted disputes. Instead, the organisation’s broad and often vague initiatives have allowed member states to pay lip service to cooperation while pursuing their own interests.

As the world watches the 2024 SCO summit, it is clear that the organisation will continue to play a key role in shaping regional politics. However, whether it can move beyond rhetoric and make tangible progress on security and economic cooperation remains to be seen. For India, the summit offers an opportunity to reaffirm its commitment to regional stability while navigating its complex relationships with both China and Pakistan.

In conclusion, the upcoming SCO summit is not just a gathering of leaders but a reflection of the shifting geopolitical realities of the region. The organisation’s significance lies in its ability to bring together countries with diverse interests, but its future effectiveness will depend on its capacity to address these differences and deliver on its promises.

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